Before I discuss the results of the Grand Final, I'd like to touch upon the results of each semifinal . In both cases I was surprised on who ended up 11th and was saddened when I learned who finished last in Semifinal 2.
In Semifinal 1, I presumed POLAND (Luna) would be the 11th placer but it turned out to be AUSTRALIA (Electric Fields). But if we factor in all the rankings (i.e., including 11th to 15th) it turns out that AUSTRALIA would not only beat 10th placer SERBIA (Teya Dora), but would've placed 9th and beat SLOVENIA (Raiven) in the process--it seems SERBIA and SLOVENIA had bloc voting to thank for surviving and making the finals. Sad to say that ICELAND (Hera Björk) was indeed the cellar-dweller, not only in this group, but overall. I was expecting MOLDOVA (Natalia Barbu) to join Hera at the bottom but it turns out less people were enamored with AZERBAIJAN (Fahree featuring Ilkin Dovlatov) were less successful in connecting with the televoters, and the points they amassed was even lower than the last placer in Semfinal 2...
...MALTA (Sarah Bonnici). She was an unjust last-place finisher in Semifinal 2, as all her onstage efforts deserved better appreciation. And analyzing the full rankings reveal that she was not actually last overall but exhibited the Ryan Dolan Conundrum*5--in fact she was actually 14th, outranking SAN MARINO (Megara) and ALBANIA (Besa), the latter taking up the rear. Like Semifinal 1, I was wrong in my presumed 11th placer as I thought it was BELGIUM (Mustii) but the already weak reception towards his staging was worse than I thought that he ended up 13th. The actual 11th placer was CZECHIA (Aiko) and if we apply the full rankings of the televote, she actually averaged in 10th place and could've knocked out the official 10th placer NORWAY (Gåte). CZECHIA also exhibited the Edurne Paradox*6, as she garnered points from 14 countries over NORWAY garnering points from 11. With NETHERLANDS' disqualification only announced on the day of the final, there was also this missed opportunity to have CZECHIA see action in the said Grand Final.
*5 Based on Ireland's Ryan Dolan's performance at the 2013 contest, when he was last in terms of points, but if you average the full rankings, he actually wasn't last--Spain's ESDM was the actual last-placer by this measure.
*6 Based on Spain's Edurne's 2015 showing as she garnered points from more countries (8) even if several other countries ranked above her and relegating her to 21st place. The Paradox also applies if based on average rankings, you rank significantly higher than your official ranking, as Edurne would've ranked 11th instead of 21st if the full rankings were applied.
Now, it's time to analyze the results of the Grand Final. Lots of stories can be told about the finalists.
Since NETHERLANDS (Joost Klein) was officially disqualified on the morning of the Grand Final, the juries got to vote for him, and it was disclosed he actually got 53 points from the uries, making him rank 12th. So any speculation that this entry could've won is out the window--even if he garnered a Kalush Orchestra-level of televote points, it's unlikely he'll win. What was the likeliest scenario is that he would have been 4th in the televote behind CROATIA, ISRAEL, and UKRAINE, but would dilute the points tey amassed that instead of three 300-point televotes, we would have maybe around five 200-point televotes (or more likely, four 200-pointers and two at the 180-180 level). The disqualification ironically enhanced the appeal of this song, as it became the top streamed song amongst this year's entries. That could be a nice consolation prize for this entry, even if his Eurovision dreams had been dashed.
NORWAY (Gåte) based on actual points alone exhibited the Ryan Dolan Conundrum as it didn't place last at all in either juries or televote--ESTONIA and the UNITED KINGDOM were officially last in those categories. But the low amount of points amassed by this entry made it last overall. And I discovered if we get the full average rankings of the jury and televote, it also exhibited the Edurne Paradox B, as it actually ranked significantly higher than its points would suggest--instead of 23rd in the jury it would've been 19th (20th if NETHERLANDS was included), and instead of 24th in the televote it would've been 20th.
AUSTRIA (Kaleen) ranked in a tie for 19th with the juries and was 23rd with the televote, and the low televote points it amassed caused it to be officially 24th in the ranking. However, examining the full televote ranking average, it turns out she exhibited the Edurne Paradox as she ranked 17th, six notches above her official standing.
SLOVENIA (Raiven) has her Balkan blocmates to thank for avoiding last place overall as it was actually 2nd to last with the juries and dead last with the televote if full rankings were applied. I feel sad that the sentiment of the Europeans toward this song is so low as I actually like this entry--ironically the music reminds most of Edurne's 2015 entry, "Amanecer [Dawn]".
SPAIN (Nebulossa) officially ranked a tie for 19th with the juries and 22nd with the televote for a 22nd place overall finish. If we apply the full rankings, it was actually weaker with the juries as it would've ranked 21st (22nd if NETHERLANDS was included), but it exhibited the Edurne Paradox with the televote, as it actually ranked 14th, as 10 countries actually voted it as bubbling under the Top 10.
GEORGIA (Nutsa Buzaladze) deserves better appreciation for the fierceness she brought onstage than what her 21st place overall ranking might indicate. Like SLOVENIA, I feel sad that both European juries and televote appreciated her less than she deserved, as if full rankings were applied she actually ranked lower than her official standing, ranking 22nd with the juries (23rd if we included the NETHERLANDS) and 22nd with the televote--she seemed to be benefiting from bloc or neighborly voting.
ESTONIA (5Miinust X Puuluup) last place finish with the juries is not surprising, that it had to rely on televote to put it out of the Bottom Five, and that it did by finishing 13th there and hence finishing 20th place overall. If its staging was more inspired, it would've gotten more televote points, but it was clearly overshadowed by other spectacles, such as....
...FINLAND (Windows95Man). Even if ESTONIA officially outpointed this entry by one point in the televote, if we apply the full ranking it actually blew way past ESTONIA, as instead of being 14th in the televote, it was actually 11th. Televoters liked the visual gimmicks from this entry enough to make it fare respectably well in that category.
UNITED KINGDOM (Olly Alexander) seems to have a mirrored scenario to ESTONIA, being officially last in the televote with the dreaded nil points, but having a respectable 13th place showing with the juries to save himself from a Bottom Five finish. I have to note in the televote, he was actually Ryan Dolan-ed, as applying the full rankings SLOVENIA and PORTUGAL fared worse than him--if we even go more granular, he was last in the televote in only four countries, while SLOVENIA was last in 20 countries and PORTUGAL in six.
SERBIA (Teya Dora) has bloc voting to thank for her 17th place standing, as if full rankings were applied, she would've ended up in 24rd place overall. Based on points she was 18th with the juries and 14th in the televote, but based on the full ranking average she was 19th with the jury and 21st in the televote.
I had presumed LATVIA (Dons) to be the one dangling by hus fingertips to make the Top 10 in Semifinal 2, but it turns out he was safely in 7th place, and this pretty much is reflected in his Grand Finals performance, where he finished 15th with the juries and 16th with the televotes. But if we apply the full rankings of the televote, he actually fared better, moving a bit up to 13th place there.
Like LATVIA, I presumed CYPRUS (Silia Kapsis) was the 10th placer in Semifinal 1 but it turns out she was also in 7th place--the quality ballads by PORTUGAL, SERBIA, and SLOVENIA were not as strong with the general public as I thought they would've been. In the Grand Final, she was 16th with the juries and 11th with the televote but if full rankings were applied, she fared a bit better with the juries at 14th place (this is excluding the NETERLANDS) and dropped to 16th place in teelvote, indicating she has GREECE to thank for her 11th place showing in the televote.
Many fans presumed that LITHUANIA (Silvester Belt) would outdo The Roop in this Grand Final like he did in their national final. But that didn't materialize as he finished 15th with the juries and 10th with the televote for a 14th place overall finish, simply equaling Monika Liu's 2022 showing. So The Roop still holds the trophy as this country's best performer in this contest thus far.
How the fan reaction towards LUXEMBOURG (Tali) was like a rollercoaster--when she won her national final, it was regarded highly but as other entries came in her buzz got diminished. But the juies got her back as she placed 11th with them and even if she was weaker in televote, placing 17th, she managed to stay at the left-side of the scoreboard with her 13th place overall showing.
I know that GERMANY (Isaak) got positive notices for his staging, but little did I know that this generates significant love from the jires that he placed 10th there and the jury points he amassed helped him stay on the left side of the scoreboard even as he finished a weak 19th place with the televote. This is at least a welcome respite from the doldrums for this country, but could it be the start of a new renaissance? Stefan Raab, who had a hand in contributing to some of this country's strong finishes in the late 1990s to 2010s, is reportedly returning to assist in the national selection--can't wait to see how it all unfolds next year.
GREECE (Marina Satti) was 15th with the juries and 8th with the televote for an 11th place overall finish. If we apply the full ranking on the televote, she actually only averaged in 10th place, meaning 8th place televote ranking was mainly buoyed by bloc voting, like douze pints from CYPRUS and Top Five showings with the televoters from SERBIA and ARMENIA (SAN MARINO televotes are actually based on the bracket it belongs to and not actual televotes, which included CYPRUS and GREECE, because that country is so small it uses ITALY's country code for its phones).
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