The first semi-final feature a couple of huge favorites to win, some artful female performances, and the return of two veterans who had previously seen action in the final--would those two be able to replicate their previous showing? With the new format introduced, I'll also integrate the Big Five + Host countries that are performing and voiting in this round.
01 CYPRUS: "Liar" - Silia Kapsis. The broadcaster decided to tap another Australian resident to represent them. This teenager (17 years old and yes, the youngest in this batch) delivered a solid, catchy pop empowerment ditty. Many pundits of course wonder if she can deliver the goods live, and with her appearance at the Dutch Eurovision in Concert pre-party, she made a convincing case that she can sing and dance to the song live. Now, during rehearsals, people are still fretting whether this entry could make the final because her staging and costuming are very simple--very much streetwear. One must also consider the fact that GREECE is not voting in this round as it is competing in the second semi-final, so can it count on the UNITED KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, and perhaps even IRELAND for this to advance?
02 SERBIA: "Ramonda" - Teya Dora. This dignified waltz ballad can also be seen as an empowerment anthem as it's basically touting the properities of a ramonda flowr, which is known to gorw on rocky terrain, and hence make analogies about persevering through life like that flower. Some might worry that because this is a slow ballad it may not garner enough televotes especially in this televote-only semi-final round, but we have to note that CROATIA and SLOVENIA are in this bracket, so that could help this entry secure a finals spot.
03 LITHUANIA: "Luktelk [Wait]: - Silvvester Belt. This dark and moody dance track has garnered a significant fan following amongst online Eurovision fans, that there is talk that this could deliver this country's best finish in this contest. Remember that he beat the formidable The Roop, who had scaled this country's highest heights thus far*1. So can he do it? I think it's still possible.
*1 Yes, I remain in denial about the existence of LT United's "We Are the Winners".
04 IRELAND: "Doomsday Blue" - Bambie Thug. When it was performed in the Late Late Show, I presumed that this is likely another bottom feeder from this erstwhile Eurovision powerhouse. But since the premiere of her official music video, this non-binary artist has been receiving increasingly positive buzz, and based on the heavy buzz about their preformance at rehearsals, this is emerging as more a finals shoo-in. Yes, this type of music remains abrasive and divisive, but the artistry and standout impact seems undeniable that this country will finally break a five-year finals drought and advance.
XX UNITED KINGDOM: "Dizzy" - Olly Alexander. This artist garnered fame as part of the band Years & Years (and assumed the band's name in latter years even if it has turned into his solo project, a la Panic! at the Disco and 1990s era Tears for Fears). So there was excitement when he was confirmed to be the UK representative. However, upon the release of the song, buzz dissipated--yes, the song seems fine, but many online fans felt that there are other stellar standouts. The music video was artful and well-produced, but didn't really quite pop. But then came the staging as Olly delivered on his promise to "gay it up" for this stage, as he featured a bevy of hunky backup dancers in jockstraps over boxing shorts (to comply with broadcast standards, of course) and a grimy shower set that seems to be located in a spaceship as there are gravity-oriented illusions in the performance. I feel this would at least bring it to a more respectable middle-of-the-board finish, with a possible play for the Top 10. This set-up should have been the music video in the first place!
When listening to this song, there is something about it that made me draw out this image--it made me imagine former Savage Garden singer Darren Hayes performing a cover of the Barry Manilow-penned tune "Could It Be Magic"*2., as if inspired by British boy band Take That's version and update it with electro-pop flourishes.
*2 Barry Manilow himself noted that the song is derived from classical composer Frédéric Chopin's "Prelude in C Minor", and he originally recorded it in 1971 as part of the studio group Featherbed in a bubblegum-pop-meets-Motown style and then recorded it in 1973 as a ballad, which was then re-recorded into the hit version in 1975. Donna Summer then released her now-iconic disco version, which wasn't a big hit during its release but grew in regard and popularity as time goes on. Take That came out with their version in 1993 that was inspired by Donna Summer's version, but ended up actually sounding closer to Featherbed's original recording. It became a big UK and European hit. Interesting how an iconic song evolves.
05 UKRAINE: "Teresa & Maria" - Jerry Heil & Alyona Alyona. Like SERBIA, this song salutes the power of perseverance, as it touts the Virgin Mary and Mother Teresa*3 as paragons of this virtue. It's a good epic pop song, though the droning chorus makes me recall a late 1980s-early 1990s Aerosmith classic, "Janie's Got A Gun"--it could be arguied that both songs indeed tackled the theme of woman empowerment, but while one song is uplifting and positive, the other one is dark and tragic. Many people are buzzing that this could be a possible winner--I see other stronger contenders out there, but I won't be surprised if this fared high like most of its entries as of late. It's a given this country will sustain its unblemished qualification streak.
*3 I know there are unsavory revelations about Mother Teresa's conduct after her death--it turns out her mission is not to relieve the plight of the poor, but to glorify poverty and suffering as the shortest path to heaven.
06 POLAND: "The Tower" - Luna. This is a likeable 1980s-style synth bop and the staging promises some elaborate set pieces that evoke the sleek music video. I'm bullish about this entry's prospects of advancing, especially with te expected diaspora vote and the visual gimmicks. Now te question is if she'll remain on pitch during her performance as that could make or break her chances of making the finals.
07 CROATIA: "Rim Tim Tagi Dim" - Baby Lasagna. I would defer to the guys of the Overthinking It YouTube channel to explain the background of the artist and the song, as they did a terrific job providing an in-depth take on this entry. What I'll add is that this song makes me imagine Jon Bon Jovi and Desmond Child coming up to a sequel to the 1986/87 smash "Living on a Prayer" and then the German hardcore techno-rock band Rammstein barged in and offered a variation of their 1997 pan-European hit "Du Hast [You Have]". I should also note the chorus also reminds me of the first third of the chorus of Boston's 1986 US number 1 hit, "Amanda", basically interrupting that chorus with the "Whoa-hoh" singalong chant. With such homages to these classics, it's no wonder why this song is such a catchy standout, and combine it with the stage presentation, one-hand-one-leg dance and now viral memes like "Meow cat, meow back", this is THE frontrunner to win Eurovision. The public will overwhelmingly vote for it as its sentiments are actually human and relatable--about apprehensions leaving your hometown for possible better opportunities out there. Yes, this will not win the jury as most likely it's a neck-to-neck race among SWITZERLAND, FRANCE, ITALY, and possibly PORTUGAL but it will score high enough to likely clinch the win.
08 ICELAND: "Scared of Heights" - Hera Björk. Here is the first of the Eurovision returnees, having made the final in 2010 with "Je ne sais quoi" and although this is similar in style to that previous entry, it's more a lighter, more dated take, and many online fans felt this lacks impact that it is often ranked at the bottom of the pack. There is something in the chorus that reminded me of K-pop group BigBang's 2012 classic "Fantastic Baby", but again this entry lacked the oomph and impact of that song. I have a feeling if we feature those grimy instrumentals from the BigBang song, it would do wonders for this song.
XX GERMANY: "Always on the Run" - Isaak. This is a solid pop song, with a tribal "run-run-run-eh" chorus that gave me visions of rumbling elephants marching. If you tinnk the joke is petentially offensive because of its oblique reference to Isaak's size, please take note that I'm also of Isaak's body shape also. Initially most fans felt that this country would not escape its last place doldrums with this number, the staging offers glimmers of hope as it's visually striking with a house-on-fire imagery. There might be juries tossing points this way, but still I have a feeling that it will stay in teh bottom five.
09 SLOVENIA: "Veronika" - Raiven. When I first heard this song, I had visions of Edurne's 2015 Eurovision entry, "Amanecer [Dawn]" because it has this epic galloping feel like that song. But this song is telling a dark tale, about a medieval story of a woman accused of witchcraft and was killed via drowning. I loved the provicative music video with all the suggestions of nudity and I was wondering if she'll replicate the look onstage. She actually came close as the dancers are in nude bodysuits though she herself is clad in skintight purple. Some are fretful about this not advancing as it's more a jury-leaning number, but we have to note that CROATIA and SERBIA are in its bracket and perhaps there will be some support from GERMANY, too. Since I don't know the Slovenian language, I invent my own silly English nonsense words to sing the chorus, and for this one I have "Laptop, PC / Veronika!"
10 FINLAND: "No Rules" - Windows95man. Overthinking It uncovered a lot of background story about the artist, that for more of that, please watch the video below. I think this entry has this 1980s sound that I think would fit well in the Cobra Kai soundtrack, alongside Greek/Dutch artist Stefania's 2021 entry, "Last Dance". Now, we have to note that Windows95man is not the sole performer of this entry, as he employed the help of singer/acter Henri Piispanen who does the chorus and the sung verses. If AZERBAIJAN decided to credit the other prominent singer, why not this entry? In my opinion, this is the closest thing we have to 1979's German entry, Dschingis Khan (with, yes, the song titled eponymously) where the lead guy is more a mascot than a singer. The difference is that at least Windows95man does rap in his songs and he actually began his career as a radio DJ, while the guy playing the titular character, Louis Hnedrick Potgieter, was mainly a dancer, and it's the other people who do te singing. Anyway, I know this will clear the televote--now the question is how weak will it fare with the jury? I have a feeling they will be at the bottom of the pack.
A piquant note: I notice that Henri resembles one of my favorite food YouTubers, Andong from My Name is Andong channel.
11 MOLDOVA: "In the Middle" - Natalia Barbu. She's the other returnee as she previouly made the Top 10 back in 2007 with the rock song "Fight". Even then she showcased her violin playing and her operatic register, and those elements are also in play with this atmospheric, classically tinged pop song. The problem is this entry is not really an impactful entry, and the staging approach involves Natalia basically standing still as she sings her song. They did change their staging approach--at the national final, Natalia dyed her hair blonde and had five clones imitating her movement, and this time she went back to her natural brunette hair color and had computer backdrops do all the spiffy presentation for her. Still it will be an uphill battle for her to make the 10 qualifiers, and worsening matters is that Romania is nowhere to be found this year as they decided to sit out this year's edition due to budget issues asd last year's dismal showing (tied for last with San Marino with 0 points)..
XX SWEDEN: "Unforgettable" - Marcus & Martinus. These Norwegian twins were runner-ups to eventual overall champion Loreen at Melodifestivalen with "Air", and this song shares many of the same elements as that entry--slick electro-pop with a well-produced light show. This is likely going to score high with the juries, but I have a feeling the televotes would be weak, though we could still see this at the left side of the scoreboard and possibly making Top 10.
12 AZERBAIJAN: "Özünlə apar [Take me with you]" - Fahree featuring Ilkin Dovlatov. It's a welcome development that this country is tapping on its native culture instead of hiring Swedish songwriters to generate their entry. This number is an atmospheric tune with English language verses and the chorus sung in Azeri, the first time we hear this country sing in that language. But even if I can respect the song, I feel this is a weak entry that would generate the third time this former recent powerhouse would miss qualification. The only support I could see for this entry is the Turkish diaspora based in Germany, as Azeri and Turkish are ethnically and linguistically related.
13 AUSTRALIA: "One Milkali (One Blood)" - Electric Fields. This duo made a splash in 2019 at the Australia Decides search with "Happy 2000 and Whatever" and this entry is actually in the same vein, albeit in a mellower mood. We can expect Zacharaiaha to deliver the expected stellar vocals and Aboriginal flavor, but many are fretting they may end up like Montaigne back in 2021 when she missed qualifying for the final.
14 PORTUGAL: "Grito [Scream]" - Iolanda. This is what I call "art-pop", as this is a very artistic ballad that is supported by this stunning contemporary dance choreography. There are many Eurovision YouTubers who regard this song as one of their favorites. But I'm worried with the televote-only semi-final is if this entry would have enough support from the general public, as this country's typical allies such as SPAIN and SWITZERLAND are in the other bracket. But then, there is a significant diaspara that might vote for this from...
15 LUXEMBOURG: "Fighter" - Tali. After a grandiose national selection, how would this entry hold its own against a bevy of heavy hitters? It's interesting that though the artist indeed grew up in Luxembourg, her heritage is diverse as she's half-Peruvian and half-Israeli, and is trying to make a name in the US as of late before this contest. Overthinking It discussed her normal musical style (introspective pop) but still this entry, which reminds me of Sia's 2016 smash hit "Cheap Thrills" especially with its tropical rhythms, she was able to be comfortable with it. It's a breezy bop sung mostly in French with an English chorus, so I think it will advance to the final. Not sure how high it will fare with some highly touted contenders out there.
Here's my take on who would advance to the final:
TOP 10: SERBIA, LITHUANIA, IRELAND, UKRAINE, POLAND, CROATIA, SLOVENIA, FINLAND, PORTUGAL, LUXEMBOURG
BUBBLING UNDER: CYPRUS, AZERBAIJAN, AUSTRALIA
Now, how do I think would the Big Five entries in this bracket fare in the final? Here's my forecast:
MID-BOARD: UNITED KINGDOM, SWEDEN
BOTTOM FIVE: GERMANY
COMING UP: SECOND SEMI-FINAL
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