Saturday, November 18, 2023

MISS UNIVERSE 2023: "FEARFUL" FORECAST


With the first full year of Khun Anne Jakkhaphong Jakrajatutip's (who will henceforth be referred to in subsequent mentions as Khun Anne) takeover of Miss Universe, we began to witness the fuller extent of the changes she intended to implement for the Miss Universe pageant.  The changes are broad and sweeping and are quite a doozy.

First, starting this edition, the pageant is now open to married women (with or without children) and single mothers to compete.  This paved the way for COLOMBIA (Camila Avella) and GUATEMALA (Michelle Cohn) to field married mothers.  Now, headlines talk about this pageant permitting transgendered contestants as if it was a new thing, when in fact the rule was already in place since 2012 under Donald Trump's regime*1--the media seemed to like to create a narrative that there was a trans onslaught because the new owner herself is trans.  Back in 2018 this pageant did witness its first trans contestant with Spain's .Angela Ponce, and this year, NETHERLANDS (Rikkie Kolle) and PORTUGAL (Marina Machete Reis) are represented by transwomen.  Then, there is body diversity--though we witnessed a bit of this with Canada's Siera Bearchell's presence back in the 2016 edition, it is more highly bandied about in this edition with the presence of NEPAL (Jane Dipika Garrett), and we later discovered when we looked at the preliminary competition, she is not really alone.  Officially, starting the next edition in 2024, they would be lifting the maximum age limit of 29, though they have already bended the rules and permitted 30-year-old ladies from BULGARIA (Yuliia Pavlikova) and LATVIA (Kate Alexeeva) to compete.

*1 Surprisingly progressive when you think about how when he ran for and became president, Trump espoused conservative agendas that intended to limit the rights of gays, transsexuals, and people of color.  It was motivated by the way by the controversy stirred by Jenna Talacova when she competed in her national pageant in Canada--she only went as far as the semifinals then.

As the contestants did their activities in El Salvador and after they received their official sashes, it was a shock that in the 6th day of their activities the contestants appeared in a live meet-and-greet event wearing the sashes they arrived in instead of the official sashes.  Then there were other occasions where this also occurred.  It's quite jarring and confusing to see this and this led to various speculations, like the sashes are rented out and the JKN Global Group is in such a tight fix (see below) that they cannot wear the sashes full-time.  I speculate a different reason--there might be events that are part of the pageants official itinerary, such as rehearsals and some official events or charity visits, but there were some events that might have been requested by people other than the El Salvador hosting committee or Miss Universe Organization, and for those events like the meet-and-greet, this is where the contestants cannot carry the official sashes.  Hopefully the real reason would be disclosed soon...


Then, on the day of the Preliminary Competition came the bombshell that Khun Anne's JKN Global Group had filed for bankruptcy in Thai courts.  Khun Anne later issued a requisite denial explaining it's not really a bankruptcy but a "reorganization" to allow them to better serve their obligations and keep the company operational.  When Khun Anne bought Miss Universe, some news reports tend to describe her as a Thai "billionaire".  I was skeptical about this, and my suspicions came true when it turned out she's a billionaire in terms of Thai currency and simply based on the market price of her company at that time in baht (THB) instead of US dollars (USD)--having a company valuation of USD 30 million would make one a Thai "billionaire"*2.  Because of a failure of paying off a bond worth USD 12 million last September, Anne's company lost 80% of its original value and is now trading at arount THB 0.77/share.

*2 To make a Filipino billionaire, your valuation or worth would be about USD 18 million.  For a Korean, it only takes less than USD 1 million, and for Indonesia and Vietnam, being an upper-middle-income earner would make you a billionaire in those countries. 

Headline from Nikkei Asia

Headline from BBC

We have witnessed a lot of efforts to monetize the Miss Universe brand by Khun Anne in the months prior to the reported debt default.  First was Anne launching a bottled water brand and then some fashion accessories like bags that she tried to associate with the pageant.  Then, she declared her policy that the franchises for each country would be handed to the highest bidders, in the process letting go of esteemed franchise holders like Puteri Indonesia.*3  Then, there was the offering of pricey packages for people wanting to visit El Salvador to watch the pageant, with prices not commensurate to the purchasing power of El Salvador's economy.  Finally, there was the folly of announcing initially that the Preliminary Competition and National Costume show would be streamed exclusively on LiveBash, for a USD 5 fee for each show. Many fans groaned at this and were bracing for the fact that they would be missing the Preliminary Competition and National Costume show altogether, until at last-minute, it was announced that both shows would now be available and livestreamed on YouTube, like it was over the past few years.  The reigning queen, R'Bonney Gabriel, explained this last-minute move as being "the fans broke the internet".  I speculate the LiveBash exclusive was a major fizzle as they probably failed to attract significant revenue, that they would be better off generating revenues with livestreaming on YouTube as YouTube has an ad program already in place and they can generate revenues per view (may not be that much as it's a fraction of a penny per view, but still...) and with livestreaming, they can raise further revenue as viewers can send "superchats" with whatever monetary amount they would like to send over tis organization's way.

*3 In the case of Indonesia, that move backfired dramatically as the new franchise holder got embroiled in a sexual harassment scandal by the contestants, forcing Khun Anne to divest this group of the franchise.  

At the end of the National Costume show, we witnessed another bombshell:  longtime Miss Universe Organization president Paula Schugart announced her resignation after the pageant finals.  Many who witnessed her departure speech and noticed she might be hinting how all is not well with the organization under Khun Anne's control, and that there were hints Paula has a major conflict with Khun Anne about the pageant's direction behind the scenes.  Her departure polarized the pageant fandom--there are some fans who adored Paula and regarded her as an institution and a bedrock which the current Miss Universe pageant stands on, but there are some more critical observers who felt Paula was not as effective a leader as she could have been, so her departure is good riddance.  Me, I'll take a wait-and-see attitude and see how the changes will unfold after this development.

There were 86 countries that confirmed their participation in this year's pageant, which would've made it a tie for 7th place in terms of contestant turnout alongside the 2006, 2013 and 2016 editions.*4  But then, two contestants could not make it, reducing the roster to 84, in a 10th place tie with the 1999 edition.*5.

*4  The first placer was 2018 with 94, then 2017 with 92, and 2019 with 90.  This was followed wit a 4th place tie for the 2011 and 2012 editions with 89, and in 6th place was the 2014 edition with 88.  

*5 The 1999 edition could've had 85 contestants, but Guam's Tisha Elaine Heflin was found to be pregnant and was disqualified.  Meanwhile the 2022 edition could've had 84 contestants, but a few hours prior to finals, Norway's Ida Hauan had to back out as she tested positive for COVID-19.

KYRGYZSTAN - Akylai Kalberdieva.  She was the first to back out.  No reported reason was given, but perhaps it could be a combination of factors like visa issues or lack of sponsorship to travel to El Salvador that may have caused her not making it.  If she made it, she would likely be an attractive also-ran.


CHINA - Qi Jia.  She had visa issues that her entry to El Salvador was seriously delayed, and she could not make it in time to compete.  However, she is reportedly showing up in El Salvador anyway to watch the final, and that she'll be competing in next year's Miss Universe instead.

Like 2004, 2020 and 2022, this year's Miss Universe is an "All-Star" edition as it features a bevy of high-ranking crossover queens, including one who had already won a major international title.  I wish I could've had the time and energy to come up with a Homestretch review, but I'm cutting a bit too close to the final so this "Fearful" Forecast would have to do, with a full-fledged contestants' review to follow.


Here's how my leaderboard looks:

TOP CONTENDERS:  MEXICO, NICARAGUA, PHILIPPINES, PUERTO RICO, SOUTH AFRICA, THAILAND 

SHOO-INS:  COLOMBIA, DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, EL SALVADOR, FRANCE, GUATEMALA, INDIA, U S A, VENEZUELA, ,  

LIKELIEST:  ANGOLA, ARGENTINA, AUSTRALIA, BAHRAIN, BELGIUM, BOLIVIA, BRAZIL, CAMEROON, CANADA, CHILE, COSTA RICA, CZECH REPUBLIC, DENMARK, ECUADOR, GERMANY, GREAT BRITAIN, HONDURAS, INDONESIA, JAMAICA, LAOS, LEBANON, MALAYSIA, NAMIBIA, NETHERLANDS, PAKISTAN, PERU, PORTUGAL,RUSSIA, SPAIN, VIETNAM, ZIMBABWE

DIVERSITY FACTOR:  NEPAL

ADVOCACY FACTOR:  SINGAPORE, UKRAINE

POPULAR VOTE FACTOR:  MYANMAR

EXCELLENT:  ARUBA, CAMBODIA, CURACAO, EGYPT, EQUATORIAL GUINEA, GUYANA, ICELAND, IRELAND, ITALY, KOREA,MALTA, MAURITIUS, MONGOLIA, NIGERIA, PANAMA, PARAGUAY, POLAND, SAINT LUCIA, TRINIDAD & TOBAGO

VERY STRONG:  BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS, CROATIA, FINLAND, JAPAN, KAZAKHSTAN, LATVIA, NORWAY, SLOVAKIA, SWITZERLAND, 

STRONG:  ALBANIA, BAHAMAS, CAYMAN ISLANDS, HUNGARY, KOSOVO

VERY GOOD:  BULGARIA, GREECE

Now, here is my "Fearful" Forecast:

FINAL THREE:  NICARAGUA, PHILIPPINES, THAILAND

FINAL FIVE:  MEXICO, PUERTO RICO

TOP 10:  DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, EL SALVADOR, FRANCE, SOUTH AFRICA, U S A

TOP 20:  BRAZIL, CHILE, COLOMBIA, GUATEMALA, INDIA,  MYANMAR, NEPAL, PERU, PORTUGAL, VENEZUELA

BUBBLING UNDER:   ANGOLA, ARGENTINA, AUSTRALIA, BAHRAIN, BELGIUM, BOLIVIA, CAMEROON, CANADA, COSTA RICA, CZECH REPUBLIC, DENMARK, ECUADOR, GERMANY, GREAT BRITAIN, HONDURAS, INDONESIA, JAMAICA, LAOS, LEBANON, MALAYSIA, NAMIBIA, NETHERLANDS, PAKISTAN, RUSSIA, SPAIN, VIETNAM, ZIMBABWE

STRIKING DISATANCE:   ARUBA, CAMBODIA, CURACAO, EGYPT, EQUATORIAL GUINEA, GUYANA, ICELAND, IRELAND, ITALY, KOREA,MALTA, MAURITIUS, MONGOLIA, NIGERIA, PANAMA, PARAGUAY, POLAND, SAINT LUCIA, SINGAPORE, TRINIDAD & TOBAGO, UKRAINE

It looks like an epic battle among crossover queens, wit Miss Supranational 2019 winner THAILAND (Anntonia Porsild) seemingly having the upper hand, but nipping closely at her heels are the Miss World crossovers like NICARAGUA (Sheynnis Palacios, Top 40, 2022) and PHILIPPINES (Michelle Marquez Dee, Top 12, 2019), but not far behind are Miss Earth-Fire 2018 MEXICO (Melissa Flores) and Miss Supranational 2021 1st Runner-Up PUERTO RICO (Karla Guilfu), but do not count out a fresh queen like SOUTH AFRICA (Bryoni Govender) or DOMINICAN REPUBLIC (Mariana Downing), or even U S A (Noelia Voigt) .  There is no true decisive leader at this point and this contest is more closely fought that you think.  Let's see how everything unfolds tonight (in North American time--in the morning where I'm at).  Hoping whoever will be chosen will be able to navigate te expected turbulence ahead with grace and dignity.

JUST ME!

JOSEPH

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