Now, it's time to discuss the automatic finalists. Besides the Big Five, UKRAINE was accorded an automatic slot because of its victory last year, even if it is unable to host the contest for understandable reasons. It can be said that this year's batch of automatic finalists are competitive, that there is a scenario that none of them will fall to the dreaded bottom five of the final this time.
FRANCE: "Evidemment [Obviously]" - La Zarra. I'm still reeling over this country's 2nd-to-last finish in the final last year, and I'm so glad Overthinking It provided an in-depth analysis of what happened, and I do love the Alvin & the Chipmunks joke ("AAAAALVAAAAAAAAAAN!!!"). Indeed, they decide to offer up a number that is of a style we tend to stereotype the French as offering--the chanson. La Zarra offered a twist by adding a disco groove to this time honored genre, and it made it a standout. This entry looks like it can make a play for the Top 10, and is hype to be the next-in-line behind the formidable Loreen and Kaarija. Can't wait to see if this will pan out.
GERMANY: "Blood and Glitter" - Lord of the Lost. Those who are not into metal or goth rock would easily dismiss this and say this country will figure in the bottom again. However, this song has great melodic elements that I think it's actually a 1980s new wave number (think Modern English and A Flock of Seagulls) dressed up in a goth-metal costume. For me it's a fusion that works and I think that even if this is marked down by the jury, there will be enough televote support to shore this above the normal bottom doldrums this country has been experiencing for several years.
ITALY: "Due vite [Two lives]" - Marco Mengoni. The typical problem of Sanremo winners is that they would need to edit down their songs to fit this contest's 3-minute time limit, as the Italian contest allows songs to run as long as 4 1/2 minutes. This lush soulful ballad is so lyrically dense that Marco had pondered sending a different song instead, but fortunately they figured out how to pare down the first verse and chorus and so this song remains the entry. From his initial 2013 stint, Marco has grown to be more soulful as a singer, and I like this song better than his previous entry--for me it's like the Italian version of that much-covered 1970 Leon Russell chestnut, "A Song for You". Considering how Marco killed covers night with his version of the Beatles' "Let It Be" (which also came out in 1970) it would be wonderful to hear Marco's version of that Leon Russell song. This country has been almost continuously faring high in this contest, and Marco is likely to sustain that streak--now the question is if he'll be able to top his 7th place finish 10 years ago.
SPAIN: "Eaea" - Blanca Paloma. Flamenco is a musical genre that is highly identifiable with this country. So fielding an entry in this genre should have been a slam dunk for this country, like a chanson does for France? Interestingly, this country only fielded two entries in this genre prior to this year: "¿Quién maneja mi barca? [Who sails my boat?]" by Remedios Amaya in 1983, and "Bandido [Bandit]" by Azucar Moreno in 1990. There were contrasting fortunes for these two entries: Remedios was a notorious flop as she garnered the dreaded nul points, while Azucar Moreno' knack for fusing pop with their musical style was very successful as they finished 5th. Blanca seems to be following Azucar Moreno's approach as her song was peppered with subtle 21st century EDM touches. But another thing that differentiated Blanca from her predecessors is her vocal register--Remedios and Azucar Moreno have these throaty altos, while Blanca has this dulcet soprano tone. One might presume dulcet soprano tones like hers wouldn't have power in her voice but Blanca has proven she can belt out full throttle. There are many fans who rave about her performance and felt she can be a close rival to the likes of Loreen, Kaarija and La Zarra. But there are others who are concerned that her style might be an acquired taste, that it may end up like France's Alvan & Ahez last year. I'm hoping that scenario won't occur as Blanca is just too good to deserve that fate. I'd love to see her in the top tier of the left side of the scoreboard. Here's hoping the juries will rally behind her.
19 UKRAINE: "Heart of Steel" - Tvorchi. Of the automatic finalists, this electro-R&B number is my least favorite. For me it's a relatively monotonous tune that I feel will not make much impact, just like any post-victory Ukrainian entry (2005 they placed 19th and 2017 they placed 24th). I do have to note they revamped the song a bit from the national final, changing one verse to be sung in Ukrainian instead of being an all-English song, and there is a string orchestra climax towards the songs end that gave it a sense of crescendo. Oddsmakers seem to believe this entry will buck the notorious trend of the 2005 and 2017 entries, as they placed this as 3rd behind Loreen and Kaarija. I suppose continued sympathy for this country's plight might shore up its televote fortunes, but I feel this will fare poorly with the juries.
26 UNITED KINGDOM: "I Wrote a Song" - Mae Muller. Many have pointed out that she was the little girl in Eurovision 2022 host Mika's music video for "Grace Kelly". But I should also note that this lady already had real-life chart impact prior to this entry, as she made a splash last year with the song "Better Days" with Swedish DJ collective NEIKED and US rapper Polo G--even if it didn't go higher than Top 30, it had enough chart legs to make the year-end chart lists in countries like the USA. Now, what about this entry? It's state-of-the-art pop that seems inspired by superstar Dua Lipa. Now the question is if her live vocals are strong enough to at least reach closer to Sam Ryder's finish instead of languishing at the bottom. What I heard is that it's divided for now--my hope is this will at least be mid-table, and that would be a respectable result.
With all entries accounted for and if my "Fearful" Forecasts in the semifinals hold, here's my take on who will make the Top 10 in the final:
TOP 10: SWEDEN, FINLAND, AUSTRIA, FRANCE, SPAIN, ISRAEL, NORWAY, MOLDOVA, ITALY, CZECHIA
BUBBLING UNDER: ARMENIA, GEORGIA, SERBIA, CROATIA, GERMANY, UNITED KINGDOM, SLOVENIA, LITHUANIA, UKRAINE
If I were the sole decision-maker, here's my own personal Top 10 among this year's entries:
1) SWEDEN; 2) FINLAND; 3) AUSTRIA; 4) MOLDOVA; 5) FRANCE; 6) CZECHIA, 7) SPAIN, 8) UNITED KINGDOM, 9) SLOVENIA, 10) NORWAY
BUBBLING UNDER: ITALY, ARMENIA, GEORGIA, SERBIA, ISRAEL, GERMANY, PORTUGAL, MALTA, ICELAND, DENMARK, LITHUANIA, LATVIA
Most prognostications point to a Loreen victory, which will bring forth major records like joining Johnny Logan as a double Eurovision winner and bringing SWEDEN in a tie with IRELAND for most Eurovision wins. But one must beware of FINLAND's Kaarija as he can deliver a major upset. Let's all check how all this unfolds.
JUST ME!
JOSEPH
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