MISS EARTH 2022: "FEARFUL" FORECAST

Apologies for not being able to come up with a Homestretch review for last year's Miss Earth and that for this year, I'm only able to provide a "Fearful" Forecast with a delegates review coming up later.  The reason for totally missing out last year was basically it was difficult for me to determine a finalized list of contestants based on the virtual pageant format--would we consider participation in one activity as criteria enough to count one as a full-fledged official delegate, or if one participates in all three important pre-judging rounds (Intelligence, Beauty of Face, Figure & Form) as the criteria.  It's not quite that clear-cut.  Still, last year's pageant featured a major breakthrough as an underdog country ended up as the winner:  Belize with Destiny Wagner.  With COVID-19 pandemic restrictions easing up, Destiny spared no time performing her duties as a titleholder publicizing the cause and the organization making various appearances around the world.

Reunion of Miss Earth queens (L-R):  Nellys Pimentel (Miss Earth 2019), Destiny Wagner (Miss Earth 2021), Lindsay Coffey (Miss Earth 2020), and Katherine Espin (Miss Earth 2016)

Though we already had a black winner way back in 2002 with Kenya's Winnifred Omwakwe, one must note that she didn't win the crown outright*1 and it took the dethronement of the original winner, Bosnia & Herzegovina's Dzejla Glavovic for her to assume the crown, it was originally assumed that Destiny is the first black winner to win the crown outright.  But I belatedly discovered we had an earlier black winner who won outright--in fact it turns out in that particular year, we had a black Top Two*2.  The year was 2019, and at the time Puerto Rico's Nellys Pimental was styled like a more conventional Latina with straighter wavy locks so even if her complexion was undeniably dusky, no one would've thought she was actually black.  Well, if we go by the conventions in Puerto Rico and her parents' country of origin, Dominican Republic, that might be true, but for American conventions, she would be considered black, so it explains why Nellys lately decided to go for an Afro look, to be truer to her roots and let her hair go natural..

*1  Though the sentiments of her fellow delegates at that time always regarded her as their winner and actually protested when Dzejla was crowned.

*2 The second placer in 2019 is USA's Emani Davis.

Outright black winners:  Nellys Pimental (Puerto Rico, 2019) and Destiny Wagner (Belize 2021)

This year, Miss Earth decided to conduct a hybrid virtual and live format--there were activities that were conducted virtually, like introductory meet-ups, costume competitions*3, and the three pre-judging rounds of Intelligence, Beauty of Face, and Form & Figure.  Then the delegates get to fly into our country for about 2 1/2 weeks' worth of eco-tourism activities until the grand final at Okada Manila.  There were 91 delegates present in one form or another in the virtual rounds but five eventually dropped and 86 made it to our shores.

*3  This year, they conducted two costume competitions--the national costume and a fauna costume as this year they are promoting a fauna theme to draw attention to saving our animal species.

Without further ado, let me now trot out my leaderboard and here's how I feel the 86 final delegates would stand:

TOP CONTENDERS:  AUSTRALIA, COLOMBIA, CUBA, KOREA

POSSIBLE USURPERS:  BELARUS, NETHERLANDS, ZIMBABWE

SHOO-INS:  BELGIUM, BRAZIL, NIGERIA, PALESTINE, PHILIPPINES, PUERTO RICO, VENEZUELA

LIKELIEST:  BELIZE, CABO VERDE, CHILE, CZECH REPUBLIC, DR CONGO, INDIA, IRAN, IRELAND, MALAYSIA, MEXICO, MONGOLIA, NAMIBIA, PERU, POLAND, PORTUGAL, RUSSIA, SOUTH AFRICA, THAILAND, U S A, ZAMBIA

INTELLIGENCE FACTOR:  CANADA, GHANA, HONG KONG, INDONESIA, SINGAPORE, 

EXCELLENT:  ARGENTINA, BOLIVIA, BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA, CHINA, DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, ECUADOR, ESTONIA, ETHIOPIA,  GREECE, HAITI, JAPAN, KOSOVO, KYRGYZSTAN, LAOS, PAKISTAN, PANAMA, REUNION ISLAND, ROMANIA, SERBIA, SIERRA LEONE,  SLOVAK REPUBLIC, SLOVENIA, SOUTH SUDAN, SPAIN, VIETNAM, 

VERY STRONG:  ALBANIA,  AUSTRIA, CAMEROON, CROATIA, ENGLAND, MALTA, MAURITIUS,  MONTENEGRO, NEPAL, NEW ZEALAND, NORTH MACEDONIA, NORTHERN MARIANAS, NORWAY, SCOTLAND, SENEGAL, SRI LANKA, UGANDA

STRONG: FRANCE, IRAQ, WALES

\

VERY GOOD:  BULGARIA

GOOD:  BURUNDI

Here is my "Fearful" Forecast:

ELEMENTAL QUEENS:  AUSTRALIA, COLOMBIA, CUBA, KOREA

TOP EIGHT:  BELARUS, NETHERLANDS, PHILIPPINES, ZIMBABWE

TOP 12:  BELGIUM, BRAZIL, NIGERIA, PALESTINE

TOP 20:  CHILE, CZECH REPUBLIC, D R CONGO, IRELAND, PUERTO RICO, RUSSIA, U S A, VENEZUELA

BUBBLING UNDER:  BELIZE, CABO VERDE, INDIA, IRAN, MALAYSIA, MEXICO, MONGOLIA, NAMIBIA, PERU, POLAND, PORTUGAL, SOUTH AFRICA, THAILAND, U S A, ZAMBIA

STRIKING DISTANCE:  ARGENTINA, BOLIVIA, BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA, CANADA, CHINA, DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, ECUADOR, ESTONIA, ETHIOPIA,  GHANA, GREECE, HAITI, HONG KONG, INDONESIA, JAPAN, KOSOVO, KYRGYZSTAN, LAOS, PAKISTAN, PANAMA, REUNION ISLAND, ROMANIA, SERBIA, SIERRA LEONE, SINGAPORE, SLOVAK REPUBLIC, SLOVENIA, SOUTH SUDAN, SPAIN, VIETNAM, 

it looks like it's a four-way race to the crown, with the question if it will go to a Classic Latina Beauty Queen (CLBQ) like COLOMBIA (Andrea Aguilera) or CUBA (Sheyla Ravelo), to a diligent and motivated student who trained in our shores like AUSTRALIA (Sheridan Mortlock), or the US-educated charismatic K-Pop queen KOREA (Mina Sue Choi).  But then, do not count out the likes of BELARUS (Liliya Levaya), NETHERLANDS (Merel Hendriksen) and ZIMBABWE (Sakhile Dube) usurping these front-runners to garner an element.  Whatever the case, best of luck to all the delegates!

JUST ME!

JOSEPH

Are these the elemental queens?  (L-R):  AUSTRALIA (Sheridan Mortlock), COLOMBIA (Andrea Aguilera), CUBA (Sheyla Ravelo), and KOREA (Mina Sue Choi)

Or would these ladies earn an element?  BELARUS (Liliya Levaya), NETHERLANDS (Merel Hendriksen) and ZIMBABWE (Sakhile Dube)